FAU Still a +650 Longshot to Win March Madness

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The only part of my 2023 March Madness bracket I can brag about is that I predicted the Florida Atlantic Owls making a deep run. Making just their second NCAA Tournament appearance ever, the Owls have grinded their way to the school's first Final Four appearance.

Set to take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the Final Four on Saturday in Houston, FAU still finds itself as a big longshot to bring a national championship back to Boca Raton.

Odds to Win March Madness

Not only do the Owls trail the heavily-favored UConn Huskies by a wide margin, they are also well back of their Final Four opponents. The Aztecs, who opened as two-point favorites for Saturday's semifinal, have +370 odds to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament, which translates to an implied win probability 60-percent higher than FAU's.

Even the Miami Hurricanes, who are 5.5-point underdogs to the Huskies in the other semifinal, have significantly better odds to win the title than FAU.

In my opinion, that's outrageous.

UConn Deserves to Be Favored

Make no mistake, UConn should be the favorite. Every reputable analytics site now rates the Huskies as the best team in the country. They bulldozed their way through the West Regional, winning all four of their games by at least 15 points and by an average of 22.5.

But UConn has also been streaky this year. They started the season 14-0 - rising as high as no. 2 in the nation - but then lost six of eight before finishing the year 9-2. They suffered setbacks to both Providence and St. John's, teams that rate considerably lower than all of their Final Four opponents.

With a week-long break between games and a 1,500-mile trip from Las Vegas to Houston, don't be surprised if UConn doesn't come out of the gates with the same rhythm it displayed while routing Gonzaga and Arkansas.

FAU Is on Par with the Other Final Four Teams

Florida Atlantic owns the best win/loss record in Division I (35-3) and is currently riding the nation's longest win streak (11 games). All three of their losses came in true road games, as well (at Ole Miss, at UAB, and at Middle Tennessee). They moved to a perfect 7-0 in neutral-site games after beating Kansas State in the Elite Eight.

FAU's detractors will point to the Owls playing an easy schedule in Conference USA, and that's somewhat true, at least compared to the other three semifinalists. FAU's scheduled rated 114th-toughest in the country. UConn was 25th, SDSU was 35th, and Miami was 65th. But any notion that they can't hang with Power Six teams was put to bed with their Sweet 16 and Elite Eight victories over Tennessee and K-State.

Pessimists will also harp on the fact that the Owls are tiny, relatively speaking. Of the seven FAU players who average over 20 minutes per game, only 7'1 center Vladislav Goldin stands above 6'4. The photo at top shows the Russian sophomore standing head-and-shoulders above his teammates while celebrating their East Regional victory over Kansas State, and it's an accurate depiction.

But FAU has been respectable on the boards all season. The team sits 89th in offensive rebounding percentage and 51st on the defensive end. The main reason they advanced past K-State was sheer domination on the glass, out-rebounding the Wildcats 44-22. Goldin led the way with 13, including six at the offensive end (more than all K-State players combined).

The Owls also out-rebounded Tennessee 40-37, and the Vols rate sixth in the entire country in offensive-rebound percentage.

In fact, FAU has won the rebounding battle in every NCAA Tournament game it's played, continuing a trend it started in their C-USA Tournament final rematch with UAB. The Owls breezed past UAB 78-56 while owning a 47-30 edge on the boards. And they have an excellent chance to keep that streak going against San Diego State in the Final Four. The Aztecs only rated 76th in offensive-rebounding percentage and their leading rebounders - 6'9 Jordan LeDee and 6'10 Nathan Mensah - only average 5.9 and 5.3 per game while playing roughly 20 minutes apiece.

Overall, KenPom and Torvik now rate FAU 17th and 24th, respectively, among all DI teams in efficiency, which is only slightly behind San Diego State (14th/9th) and is actually ahead of Miami (22nd/26th).

The only basis on which to list the Owls at the bottom of the national championship odds is conference bias. But what the 2023 edition of the NCAA Tournament has proved on a daily basis is that the gap between the Power Six and the mid majors is smaller than ever.

While FAU might not win this tournament, they certainly offer the best betting value at +650.

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